New swing state poll has Obama inching farther ahead

[whatsthat]

Oh yes, Rasmussen

If this is a long haul versus a sprint....time for Romney to get haulin and DO SOMETHING

Obama going rogue and yet STILL leading Romney

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, June 30, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting 46% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

The president’s is enjoying a modest bounce following the Supreme Court ruling on the health care law. This is the first time he has held the lead on consecutive days in more than a month.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

[Patriot210]

Originally Posted by whatsthat

Oh yes, Rasmussen

If this is a long haul versus a sprint....time for Romney to get haulin and DO SOMETHING

Obama going rogue and yet STILL leading Romney

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, June 30, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting 46% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

The president’s is enjoying a modest bounce following the Supreme Court ruling on the health care law. This is the first time he has held the lead on consecutive days in more than a month.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

I wouldn't bother looking at polling as anything but a loose trend until late July.

What I've noticed is that weekends poll one way and mid-weeks poll another way. The trend flips, when we get near holidays...and then polling is "off" as we go through a holiday period. I've read stuff from statisticians and pollsters that discuss "weekend effects" and "holiday effects". There are mulitple hypotheses why trends are what they are. Regardless, everyone will get back from vacation, the weekend / mid week effect will be flipped...then it will "right" itself, making the numbers seems jumbled.

In short, folks started going on vacation this week, different folks will go on vacation this coming week, and another sub-set of folks will go on vacation the week after the 4th. It probably won't be until the 3rd or 4th week of July until thigns settle out.

Also, the Rasmussen gets miscalibrated, at times. Look at the Presidential approval. Gallup samples all voters, which leans much further left than likely voters. Regardless, the two polls are roughly equal. I am not sure if the Rasmussen is more sensitive to "holiday effects" or if it just gets miscalibrated, due to the fact it is a robo-poll and needs to adjust itself based on whatever data Rasmussen is using to add in a cell phone adjustment factor (robo-pollsters can't call cell phones, as they can't offer compensation for polling on a cell).

So...we won't know the effect of Holder, the Obamacare ruling, or any other recent event for a couple of weeks.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by whatsthat

Oh yes, Rasmussen

If this is a long haul versus a sprint....time for Romney to get haulin and DO SOMETHING

Obama going rogue and yet STILL leading Romney

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, June 30, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows President Obama attracting 46% of the vote, while Mitt Romney earns 44%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

The president’s is enjoying a modest bounce following the Supreme Court ruling on the health care law. This is the first time he has held the lead on consecutive days in more than a month.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

The effect of the sellout in the Supreme Court (Thank you Earl Warren, Jr.) really won't show up in the polling for a few days. Polls like Rasmussen's daily tracking poll typically use a several day period, each day they add a new day's results to the poll and drop off the earliest day's results.,Rasmussen uses a three day period. By the way, Rasmussen has been the most accurate of all of the pollsters for the last several elections.

[LOTRfan]

This shows the average of several polls and Obama is up

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

[whatsthat]

Be honest........wouldn't mst of you feel better about the upcoming election if Romney was up 8 pts today in polls?

I would and equally alarmed that even with Obama going rogue on the rule of law............fresh meat.......he is still up.

[LOTRfan]

Originally Posted by whatsthat

Be honest........wouldn't mst of you feel better about the upcoming election if Romney was up 8 pts today in polls?

I would and equally alarmed that even with Obama going rogue on the rule of law............fresh meat.......he is still up.

he should have an up swing -- hopefully he will after this week.

The last few supreme court decisions are troubling and very much a shift to the left, I wonder if a right to bear arms were to land there today what would happen.

The congressial rulings are not being upheld -- it seems holding that branch is meaningless.

the DOJ is completely corrupt -- picking and choosing who they will go after.

Even if Obama loses I think we will have a huge court battle over election laws in each state. If states pass laws to protect their elections from fraud now they are subject to them being contested and the results denied or changed. How long was Al Franken tied up in the courts, 6 months i believe, until they found enough votes to push him to the win.

Plus the counting of several states voting machines is held by a foreign company whose owner happens to be an Obama supporter.


If Obama stays in office i fear our republic is doomed -- if it isn't already.

And still Romney is waiting --for what exactly ???

[fegary]

Originally Posted by whatsthat

Be honest........wouldn't mst of you feel better about the upcoming election if Romney was up 8 pts today in polls?

I wouldn't. As I've posted on multiple occasions I'm extremely concerned about this one. The last thing we need is anyone who isn't for Obama getting even a modicum of complacency. Of course, it would also be nice if anyone who is for Obama lost some of their ignorance/willful stupidity and came to their senses.

The United States of America are a Constitutional Federated Republic, despite all three branches of our government currently mostly disregarding two of those aspects. It never ceases to both amaze and sadden me how little our citizens actually know about our government.

[Patriot210]

Originally Posted by Nelson

The effect of the sellout in the Supreme Court (Thank you Earl Warren, Jr.) really won't show up in the polling for a few days. Polls like Rasmussen's daily tracking poll typically use a several day period, each day they add a new day's results to the poll and drop off the earliest day's results.,Rasmussen uses a three day period. By the way, Rasmussen has been the most accurate of all of the pollsters for the last several elections.

Yes, when he gets his model right, he is within a point on national elections. His state polling is OK...not great. I think his adjusted cell phone model works in aggregate but not as well on the state level, with a smaller, more specific sample. That is, when you throw in liberal and conservative states, and kind of "average" out the noise, his model works. It's kind of like SPC...using multiple measurement sites on a piece of product and charting the mean on an Xbar-R chart. The method works really well.

It also works adequately at the state level. You need to draw from a basket of polls on the states, though.

As I blabbered on about, above, when his "likely" voter model shows a leftward trend versus "all voters", I think his poll is showing some kind of mis-calibration. I doubt a Republican-heavy sample is more for President Obama than a Democratic-heavy sample.

--edited note...I am agreeing with Nelson but being a stat-nerd about it

[Patriot210]

Originally Posted by fegary

I wouldn't. As I've posted on multiple occasions I'm extremely concerned about this one. The last thing we need is anyone who isn't for Obama getting even a modicum of complacency. Of course, it would also be nice if anyone who is for Obama lost some of their ignorance/willful stupidity and came to their senses.

The United States of America are a Constitutional Federated Republic, despite all three branches of our government currently mostly disregarding two of those aspects. It never ceases to both amaze and sadden me how little our citizens actually know about our government.

I totally agree. People have no idea how everything fits together to make "us" who we are.

We have a bunch of dopes running around who think you can take a situation, that has 20 different inputs (of which 5-10 are major inputs) and that you can isolate one or two, add them to a new set of 18-19 inputs, and get the same result.

For example, WW2 helped to end the Great Depression. Government spending was one piece of that...there were 10+ other pieces that you cannot ignore that went into the economic shift in the 40's and 50's...inclusive of the destruction of all our major economic competitors.

[Nelson]

All of the polling at this stage is really just a snapshot in time, and not at all indicative of the way the election will turn out. Polls will be all over the place during the next four months, but there is one thing that has to be very concerning to Team Obama...an incumbent officeholder, especially a President, who consistantly polls under 50% is in major trouble. The undecideds almost always break for the challenger, so Obama's constant mid-40s range numbers have to be really worrying them quite a bit.

I am surprised that the Supreme Court decisions of last week seem to have had no real effect. As of today Rasmussen's daily tracking has it at 45-45%, dead even...and these numbers are all from days after the Supreme Court decision.